A closer view at the emissions intensity targets of China and India

India today announced that it would reduce emissions intensity by 20-25% from 2005 levels. This announcement comes after much government deliberation on the heels of China’s last week announcement of aiming to reduce emissions intensity by 40-45% from 2005 levels.

Emissions intensity is the level of GHG emissions per unit of economic activity, GDP at the national level. Emissions intensity is a more complex but is a better metric for developing countries than per capita emissions. Because it is influenced chiefly by energy intensity and the fuel mix of a country, it is easier to plan for policies. But reduction in intensity does not signal a reduction in emissions, which makes it a bad metric to use for developed nations.

Unsurprisingly emissions intensities vary widely across countries and reveal some surprising results. According to 2005 numbers the tiny Micronesian island of Nauru has the highest emissions intensity while China is placed 11th with half the intensity of Nauru and nearly equal to Iraq’s. India comes in at 49th place with intensity half of China’s and slightly higher than that of Canada’s and 5% higher than that of USA’s which is ranked 55.

Generally developing countries tend to have high emissions intensity because basic industrial activities like basic metals form a major chunk of their GDP while developed countries have a higher share of their GDP coming from low emissions services sector. Also countries dependent on importing emissions intensive goods will have a lower intensity profile. Another factor that reflects in intensity is the fuel mix of a country. Economies dependent on nuclear or hydro power have lower profiles than ones with coal or gas.

Historically countries have seen marked reductions in emissions intensities with accelerated GDP growth. For example the USA’s intensity fell by 25% in the period from 1990 to 2005. China saw an exceptional decrease of 46% in intensity in the same period while India saw a fall of just 18%. China’s emissions intensity actually increased by 10% between 1991 and 2005 which saw major increase in electricity generation capacity from coal.

India’s intensity is low because of the significant presence of hydro power compared to coal intensiveness of China. But India is expected to invest heavily in coal plants as it attempts to connect nearly 60% of the population unconnected to the grid while China has almost 90% grid connectivity. This puts into perspective the enormity of the task India has at hand compared to China.